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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (25.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).

Tyreek Hill has totaled many more air yards this season (118.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).

Tyreek Hill's 75.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 66.1.

Tyreek Hill grades out in the 91st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.

The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The New York Jets cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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