Tyquan Thornton Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2025

Updated Oct 7, 2025 12:12 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+445/-750).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -750.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
After accumulating 22.0 air yards per game last season, Tyquan Thornton has undergone big improvement this season, now averaging 118.0 per game.
Tyquan Thornton's 52.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 15.7.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
The leading projections forecast Tyquan Thornton to be a less important option in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (7.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played).
With a feeble 54.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (24th percentile) this year, Tyquan Thornton stands as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among WRs.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the Jaguars defense this year (64.9% Adjusted Completion%).