Tyquan Thornton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyquan Thornton

NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 8:22 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+220/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +310 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.
The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

While Tyquan Thornton has garnered 18.9% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Kansas City's pass game in this week's contest at 12.0%.
Tyquan Thornton checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 49.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 13th percentile among wide receivers
Since the start of last season, the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded a mere 63.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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