Tyquan Thornton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 8:12 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.
When talking about air yards, Tyquan Thornton grades out in the towering 78th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accruing a massive 65.0 per game.
The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

While Tyquan Thornton has garnered 18.9% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Kansas City's pass game in this week's contest at 12.0%.
Tyquan Thornton checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 49.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 13th percentile among wide receivers
The Ravens pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.12 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.