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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-670).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -690 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -670.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 60.5% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • While Tyler Lockett has been responsible for 2.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Las Vegas's pass game near the end zone in this game at 11.2%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projections to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Tyler Lockett has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
  • Tyler Lockett's 22.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 32.6.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

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