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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+880/-2250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a giant -14-point underdog this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (60.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Raiders.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
  • With a middling 2.2% Red Zone Target% (20th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett has been among the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in football.
  • After totaling 48.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Lockett has gotten worse this season, now sitting at 22.0 per game.
  • Tyler Lockett's 22.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 32.6.

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