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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+800/-840).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -840.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -8-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs this week, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 64.0% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football in these situations has been the Las Vegas Raiders.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Raiders offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.37 seconds per play.
  • Tyler Lockett has notched far fewer air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (48.0 per game).
  • Tyler Lockett's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 32.6.
  • The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Tyler Lockett's 65.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a noteworthy reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 70.0% figure.

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