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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+720/-950).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +830 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +720.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a big -9-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.1% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Raiders have been the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.8% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (just 52.5 per game on average).
  • Tyler Lockett has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (17.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
  • Tyler Lockett's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 32.6.
  • Tyler Lockett's 47.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a noteable decline in his receiving talent over last season's 70.0% figure.
  • With a very bad ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Tyler Lockett stands among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in football among wideouts this year.

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