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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+131/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -147.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -6-point underdog this week.

With a fantastic 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Tyler Lockett places among the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.

Since the start of last season, the porous Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded a staggering 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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