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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a giant -14-point underdog this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
  • Tyler Lockett's 22.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 32.6.
  • The Raiders O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Tyler Lockett's receiving skills have tailed off this year, totaling a measly 1.8 adjusted catches compared to 2.9 last year.

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