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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-134/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +146 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
  • The Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.
  • While Tyler Lockett has earned 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Las Vegas's passing attack this week at 17.5%.
  • This year, the anemic Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Raiders have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.9 plays per game.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • Tyler Lockett's 1.5 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a significant drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 2.9 rate.
  • Tyler Lockett's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 70.0% to 55.1%.

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