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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -185.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a big -9-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.1% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (just 52.5 per game on average).
  • Tyler Lockett has been used less as a potential target this year (47.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (81.4%).
  • Tyler Lockett's receiving talent has diminished this season, totaling a measly 1.0 adjusted catches vs 2.9 last season.
  • Tyler Lockett's 47.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a noteable decline in his receiving talent over last season's 70.0% figure.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.9%) versus wide receivers this year (61.9%).

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