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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are enormous -8-point underdogs.

The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) last year.

Last year, the poor Broncos pass defense has been gouged for a massive 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.7% pass rate.

The leading projections forecast the Titans to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Titans last year (a measly 56.5 per game on average).

When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Titans ranks as the 9th-worst in football last year.

The Denver Broncos cornerbacks project as the 5th-best unit in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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