Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+141/-178).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -178.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accrue 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.6%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best CB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.