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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -6-point underdog this week.

With a fantastic 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Tyler Lockett places among the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.

Since the start of last season, the porous Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded a staggering 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in the NFL.

The Colts pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, giving up 8.99 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.

With a bad 2.41 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (16th percentile) since the start of last season, Tyler Lockett has been as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the league in the open field.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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