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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-251).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +174.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (19.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).
  • Tyler Lockett has posted a whopping 96.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
  • Tyler Lockett grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
  • The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 5th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.
  • The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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