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Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Tyler Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+810/-1600).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1600.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Justin Fields in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The leading projections forecast Tyler Johnson to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (8.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

The Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Since the start of last season, the feeble Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 70.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Jets offense to skew 10.6% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 123.6 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the New York Jets since the start of last season (just 55.4 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.

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