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Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Tyler Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+690/-930).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -930 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -930.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -12.5-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect Tyler Johnson to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this game (12.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).
  • After accruing 15.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Johnson has gotten better this season, now pacing 24.0 per game.
  • Tyler Johnson's 77.8% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 65.3% figure.
  • This year, the weak New England Patriots defense has given up a staggering 1.30 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.7 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • The Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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