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Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Tyler Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-182/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Tyler Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (46.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (33.0%).
  • As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have just 123.8 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Tyler Johnson's receiving talent has diminished this year, compiling just 0.8 adjusted receptions vs 2.3 last year.

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