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Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets

Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Jets are a big 7-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.

While Tyler Johnson has garnered 7.3% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in New York's passing offense in this week's contest at 14.0%.

The New York offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Jets to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 121.6 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets since the start of last season (a measly 55.3 per game on average).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, yielding 7.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.

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