My Account Log Out
 
 
Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -12.5-point underdogs.
  • Tyler Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (48.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (33.0%).
  • After accruing 15.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Johnson has gotten better this season, now pacing 24.0 per game.
  • Tyler Johnson's 77.8% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 65.3% figure.
  • Tyler Johnson's 14.0 adjusted yards per target this year shows a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 7.1 figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.7 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Tyler Johnson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a significant decrease in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 7.0% rate.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's LB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 7th-best in the NFL.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™