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Tyler Conklin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+740/-930).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -790 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -930.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.With a 60.7% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football in these cases has been the Chargers.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 132.5 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Chargers this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.Tyler Conklin has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs.After averaging 23.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Conklin has seen a big decrease this season, now pacing 6.0 per game.Tyler Conklin's 6.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 25.8.The Chargers O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
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