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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-159).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3-point underdog in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.

With a top-tier 82.5% Route% (94th percentile) last year, Tyler Conklin ranks as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.

Last year, the anemic Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed a colossal 79.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers last year (only 55.5 per game on average).

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league last year in covering pass-catchers.

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