Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Tim Boyle.
An extreme passing game script is implied by the Jets being a huge -9.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Tyler Conklin to total 4.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
When talking about air yards, Tyler Conklin ranks in the towering 89th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a colossal 35.0 per game.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
The Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's safety corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

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