Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to earn 5.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in football.
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on just 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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