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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-748).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +392 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +370.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

Tyler Conklin has compiled a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.

Tyler Conklin's 30.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 85th percentile for TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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