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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+404/-867).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +413 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +404.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (16.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).

Tyler Conklin has put up quite a few more air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) versus tight ends this year (62.6%).

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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