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Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +160.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Tennessee Titans may lean on the pass less in this game (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) this year.Tyler Boyd profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an excellent 71.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of safeties has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The Tennessee Titans offense has played at the 5th-most sluggish tempo in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 29.93 seconds per play.Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.Tyler Boyd's 25.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 38.5.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
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