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Tyler Boyd

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Titans will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mason Rudolph this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

Tyler Boyd checks in as one of the best possession receivers in football, completing an excellent 72.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 80th percentile among wideouts.

This year, the poor Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been torched for a massive 70.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.9% pass rate.

The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Tyler Boyd has been used less as a potential target this season (73.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (87.6%).

After averaging 42.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Boyd has significantly declined this season, currently boasting 25.0 per game.

As it relates to pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

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