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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-330).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +300 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +300.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.
  • The leading projections forecast Tyler Allgeier to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (33.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.4% in games he has played).
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • Tyler Allgeier's 83.3% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% rate.
  • The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on Tyler Allgeier's player page this year.
  • With an exceptional ratio of 0.50 TDs on the ground per game (91st percentile), Tyler Allgeier rates as one of the best rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL this year.

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