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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +225.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

Tyler Allgeier ranks in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs this year with a remarkable 0.7% of his team's air yards accumulated.

Tyler Allgeier has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a fantastic 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the weak Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered a colossal 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

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