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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+148/-184).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +148.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Cardinals defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.29 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • Tyler Allgeier has garnered 46.8% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Tyler Allgeier's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 100.0% to 92.3%.
  • The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of Tyler Allgeier's trading card this year.

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