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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.
  • This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a staggering 92.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.
  • Tyler Allgeier has earned 47.5% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
  • Tyler Allgeier's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 100.0% to 92.3%.
  • The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on Tyler Allgeier's stats page this year.
  • Tyler Allgeier has run for 0.57 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (93rd percentile).

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