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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -300.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89.8%) vs. RBs this year (89.8%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Tyler Allgeier has been given 48.9% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Tyler Allgeier's 87.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% figure.
  • The receiving TD field reads "0" on the back of Tyler Allgeier's trading card this year.

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