Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 9:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
The Falcons O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Panthers defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 6th-most run-focused team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
The projections expect the Falcons to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Among all running backs, Tyler Allgeier ranks in the 86th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, making up 51.2% of the usage in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.

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