Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2025

Updated Nov 9, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-360).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -340 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -360.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
The leading projections forecast the Falcons to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Among all running backs, Tyler Allgeier ranks in the 81st percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, accounting for 45.7% of the usage in his team's rushing attack near the goal line.
Tyler Allgeier's 3.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the worst in football: 21st percentile for running backs.
Tyler Allgeier's 83.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a substantial regression in his receiving skills over last season's 100.0% rate.

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