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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-112/-112).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
  • Tyler Allgeier has been given 36.0% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.42 adjusted yards-per-carry.
  • The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The model projects the Falcons as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 42.4% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are projected by the projection model to call only 61.9 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
  • Tyler Allgeier's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 3.80 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.69 rate last year.

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