Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 4:46 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-105/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the most run-focused team in the league (43.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Atlanta Falcons.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Atlanta Falcons last year (a whopping 59.2 per game on average).
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been very bad last year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 100.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense last year.

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