Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
Out of all RBs, Tyler Allgeier ranks in the 79th percentile for carries this year, making up 42.7% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
The Tampa Bay defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
Tyler Allgeier has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Tyler Allgeier's ground efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a mere 3.06 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.95 rate last season.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 86.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense this year.

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