Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year in run-blocking.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's group of DEs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
While Tyler Allgeier has garnered 37.6% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Atlanta's running game in this week's game at 27.0%.
Tyler Allgeier has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Tyler Allgeier's 3.5 adjusted yards per carry this year conveys a material reduction in his rushing talent over last year's 5.0 rate.

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