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Tyler Allgeier Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-129/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.

This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

With a puny 0.6 adjusted receptions per game (20th percentile) this year, Tyler Allgeier ranks as one of the weakest pass-game RBs in the NFL.

Tyler Allgeier's 83.3% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% rate.

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 9th-best in football.

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Tyler Allgeier ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Receptions
Player Prop Week 9