Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 21, 2025 9:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-161/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 100.0% to 92.3%.

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