Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2025

Updated Nov 30, 2025 5:37 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-172/+136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Tyler Allgeier's 4.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the worst in the NFL: 24th percentile for RBs.
With a puny 0.7 adjusted receptions per game (22nd percentile) this year, Tyler Allgeier ranks among the worst RBs in the pass game in the league.
Tyler Allgeier's 88.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a significant regression in his receiving talent over last year's 100.0% figure.

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