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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Patriots defense has been gouged for the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) vs. running backs this year.
  • This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • Tyler Allgeier comes in as one of the worst pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a mere 3.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile among RBs.
  • Tyler Allgeier's 83.3% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% rate.
  • Tyler Allgeier rates as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL among running backs, averaging just 3.35 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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