Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 9, 2025

Updated Nov 2, 2025 8:32 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
The Patriots defense has been gouged for the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (38.0) vs. running backs this year.
This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
Tyler Allgeier comes in as one of the worst pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a mere 3.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile among RBs.
Tyler Allgeier's 83.3% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% rate.
Tyler Allgeier rates as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL among running backs, averaging just 3.35 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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