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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Tyler Allgeier is positioned as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among running backs, averaging an excellent 7.56 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 86th percentile.
  • The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Tyler Allgeier's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 100.0% to 92.3%.
  • Tyler Allgeier's talent in picking up extra yardage have diminished this year, accumulating a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.15 rate last year.
  • This year, the daunting Cardinals defense has given up a feeble 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 10th-fewest in football.

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