Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2025

Updated Nov 30, 2025 5:37 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Tyler Allgeier's 4.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the worst in the NFL: 24th percentile for RBs.
Tyler Allgeier grades out as one of the worst RB receiving threats this year, averaging just 3.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 13th percentile among RBs.
Tyler Allgeier's 88.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a significant regression in his receiving talent over last year's 100.0% figure.

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