Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2025

Updated Nov 24, 2025 12:22 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-111).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
The Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89.8%) vs. RBs this year (89.8%).

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Tyler Allgeier ranks as one of the bottom running backs in the pass game this year, averaging just 2.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 10th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Tyler Allgeier's 87.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% figure.
With a feeble 3.2 adjusted yards per target (13th percentile) this year, Tyler Allgeier stands among the weakest pass-game running backs in the league.

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