Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 13, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to air yards, Tyler Allgeier grades out in the lofty 75th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 0.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Tyler Allgeier's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents an impressive boost in his receiving ability over last season's 79.8% figure.
Tyler Allgeier comes in as one of the leading running backs in the NFL at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a terrific 10.04 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
The Panthers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 10.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year.
With an impressive 21.7% snap rate (23rd percentile) this year, Tyler Allgeier stands among the running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
The Panthers pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, allowing 4.64 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.