Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 2:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
When talking about air yards, Tyler Allgeier grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an astounding 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Tyler Allgeier's talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 8.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 0.00 mark last season.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (20.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (39.1%).
Tyler Allgeier's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 93.7% to 74.1%.
Tyler Allgeier's receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 5.89 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.83 figure last year.