Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this week (8.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 14.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Tyler Allgeier has accounted for a paltry -0.7% of his offense's air yards this year: just 21st percentile among running backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 14.0) versus RBs this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, allowing 5.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.

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